“The year is presented with good prospects for the mortgage sector, both for maintaining its dynamism and for the expectations of changes that will result in improvements for customers and innovation in the sector, posing interesting challenges for banking.” With these words he summarizes Juan * Villén, head of idealist / mortgages, what can we expect from the mortgage market during 2018.
In his opinion, the next months will be marked by an increase in the granting of new loans, a greater role of fixed mortgages, the entry into force of the new mortgage law that will bring more transparency to the sector, the simplification of processes for to the formalization of new mortgages and the possibility that the 12-month Euribor changes in trend and leaves its current historical lows. We summarize the seven trends that are expected in this area:
1. More mortgages will be signed.
The upward trend in mortgage concessions that began in 2014 will continue during this year. And it is expected that the signing of new loans will grow in the coming months, in the hand of the growing number of home sales.
In anticipation of knowing how to close 2017, the latest official data from the INE reveals that almost 265,000 mortgages were signed between January and October, 8.2% more than a year earlier. Everything points to the fact that the barrier of 300,000 loans for home purchase was exceeded, the best figure since 2011. Looking to 2018, and considering that the forecasts figure the number of sales in 550,000 units (with an increase of 6% year-on-year), the market assumes that the concession will continue in ‘crescendo’. The Taxation Company, for example, estimates that 315,000 mortgages could be signed.
2. The Euribor could live its first rises
The reference indicator for most mortgages currently in Spain has released the year marking historical lows at its 12-month rate, although the market understands that its land is already very close. Although there could be new falls in the first months of the year, in the final stretch of the year we could see a shy rise.
The reason? Your quote discounted how interest rates will be within a year … and it is very likely that the European Central Bank (ECB) decides to increase the price of money in the eurozone during 2019. But no one is getting The hands at the head: the beginning of the upward trend does not necessarily mean that the Euribor will enter into positive ground in this exercise, but gradually approaching 0%. In fact, * Villén maintains that the real effect on the mortgaged pocket will be minimal.
3. Fixed mortgages will continue to increase market share
The possible change in the direction of the Euribor is sharpening in new mortgages. Those who want to protect themselves from this rise must look at fixed mortgages, an alternative whose main advantage is the tranquility that the client offers: the quota will be exactly the same from the first month to the last .
Throughout 2017, we saw fixed-rate loans at the highest levels, and if there were no major changes to the market, experts predicted more records … they did not even rule out that the fixed rate could overcome their rival variable in the new hires. The highest level they have achieved is 40% in August, according to INE data.
In addition to the Euribor, another lever of the fixed rate will be the entry into force of the new mortgage law that, among other developments, will give consumers the opportunity to convert a variable loan into a fixed one if it agrees with it your bank
4. The consumer will gain protection with the mortgage law
The Government approved at the beginning of November the new mortgage law, although the text is still in parliamentary phase. Its final approval is scheduled for the first half of the year.
The regulations come with the aim of introducing European directives in the Spanish legal system in matter, increasing transparency for consumers and giving more legal security to banks.
To do this, it will set up changes such as the obligation of the client to go to a notary before signing the contract to ensure that his loan conforms to the legality, a limitation to the commissions applied by the banks, the possibility to convert the variable mortgages into fixed ones with a minimum cost or a list of abusive clauses.
Although some economists believe that banks will ‘charge’ the highest protection to the user and, therefore, they will be facing mortgages, * Villén is convinced that the conditions will continue to be very advantageous for customers because they will remain competitive between the entities. In addition, he argues that “we will see innovation in mortgage products in the face of the need to dissociate linked products and how to interpret” combined offers “.”
5. More mortgages will be canceled from which they will be granted
The market assumes that the increase in the formalization of new mortgages will not be enough to overcome the cancellations. In 2017, there has been some ‘* sorpasso’ punctual, although everything points to the fact that the mortgage balance (ie, the volume of money provided by entities through mortgages) will continue to be reduced, further pushing the margin of business in the financial sector.
6. It will be easier to compare offers.
The new mortgage law, coupled with the greater use of the Internet and the existence of comparators, will allow better comparison of the offers of some banks with others and will allow users to know better how the market is before deciding on a loan in particular In the idealist mortgages comparator, for example, one can check at a glance what are the most competitive offers based on the client’s profile.
7. The processes of application and formalization will be facilitated
Another trend we will see this year in mortgage matters is the growing effort of banks to digitalize the process of requesting and formalizing mortgages, although they are always backed by human teams due to the complexity and multitude of parties involved in this process.